Pitching Insights
TPA Nationals 10u Elite · Spring 2026 · through 15 games · prepared for Ley (pitching)
ERA is the most misleading number on a 10u stat sheet — at this age, runs come from free
baserunners (walks, hit-by-pitches, wild pitches) far more than from hard contact, and a couple
of bad innings can wreck an ERA that doesn't reflect how a kid actually throws. This sheet ranks
the staff on the numbers that predict run prevention: first-pitch strike % (FPS),
overall strike %, walks per inning, wild pitches, and opponent average
(BAA). Three findings up top, then the full board.
The hidden read
- Bailey is the only complete arm — guard his innings. He pairs the staff's best command
(0.16 BB/inning, 3 walks all year) with its highest strike rate (68.9%) and the most
innings (19.1). Nobody else has both the strikes and the durability. The risk isn't performance,
it's overuse — he's one rest-day mistake from being unavailable in bracket play.
- The biggest free-base source is wild pitches, not walks. Cooper Johnson (#44) has 9
walks and 15 wild pitches in 7.1 innings. The wild pitches are the real story — each one is a
free 60-foot advance, and a run with a man on third — and none of it shows up in ERA. That's the
most fixable run source on the staff (bullpen catching reps and a repeatable delivery), and it's
purely a mound-mechanics fix.
- First-pitch strikes split the upside arms from the rest. Mantzouris has the lowest
opponent average on the team (.350) and misses bats (4 K in 3.1 IP), but gets to first-pitch
strikes only 42% of the time. Same story with Smith (8 K in 4 IP, 44% FPS). The stuff is real;
getting ahead in the count is the unlock that turns them into trusted arms.
Staff board — sorted by role
| Pitcher | IP | GS | FPS% |
Strike% | BB/IP | WP | BAA |
K | WHIP | ERA |
|---|
| Carry the load |
| Bailey #33 | 19.1 | 4 | 62.0 | 68.9 | 0.16 | 2 | .420 | 7 | 2.07 | 3.41 |
| James Cooper #5 | 10.0 | 2 | 58.3 | 61.0 | 0.50 | 2 | .426 | 9 | 2.80 | 9.60 |
| Bridge with strikes |
| Waylon #7 | 6.1 | 1 | 67.4 | 65.5 | 0.00 | 3 | .500 | 1 | 3.32 | 10.42 |
| Packham #3 † | 1.2 | 0 | 70.6 | 62.8 | 0.60 | 1 | .533 | 0 | 5.40 | 14.40 |
| Upside — develop first-pitch strikes |
| Mantzouris #17 | 3.1 | 2 | 41.7 | 54.5 | 0.60 | 2 | .350 | 4 | 2.70 | 12.60 |
| Smith #54 | 4.0 | 2 | 44.0 | 52.0 | 1.00 | 4 | .400 | 8 | 3.00 | 7.50 |
| Situational / spot innings |
| Cooper Johnson #44 | 7.1 | 3 | 43.1 | 52.6 | 1.23 | 15 | .413 | 6 | 3.82 | 12.27 |
| Biggs #24 | 3.1 | 1 | 53.1 | 47.1 | 2.40 | 8 | .478 | 5 | 5.70 | 19.80 |
| Robey #67 | 2.0 | 0 | 57.1 | 55.6 | 1.50 | 0 | .455 | 4 | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| Parker #22 | 1.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 1.00 | 1 | .000 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Findley #10 | 1.0 | 0 | 16.7 | 53.1 | 1.00 | 2 | .400 | 0 | 3.00 | 12.00 |
Reading the colors: green = a strength, red = a concern, amber = watch.
Green/red are relative to this staff, not to a pro standard. Sub-3 IP lines are small samples —
treat them as signals, not verdicts.
† Packham sits with the bridge arms on trait — his 70.6% first-pitch strikes
lead the staff and clear both Upside arms. The asterisk is sample and contact: it's 17 batters, and
over them opponents hit .533 (5.40 WHIP). He's the unproven version of Waylon — pounds the zone but
has been squared up, and pitching him pulls the team's only true shortstop off the field. Give him
30–40 more batters in low-leverage innings before trusting him in a real bridge spot.
Wild pitches: the quiet run faucet
The staff has thrown 40 wild pitches in 15 games. Two arms account for 23 of
them — Cooper Johnson (15) and Biggs (8). At 10u a wild pitch is functionally a free
base, and with a runner on third it's a run. This is the single most fixable source of runs on the
staff and it never shows up when you only look at ERA. Bullpen catching reps and a slower, repeatable
delivery do more here than anything velocity-related.
How to deploy them
Game-plan shape
- Start: Bailey in the games that matter; James Cooper #5 as the No. 2 — staff-high 9 K and second-best command (0.5 BB/IP). His lever is limiting contact, not walks.
- Bridge: Waylon — throws strikes (67% FPS, 0 BB), lets the defense work. Don't ask him for strikeouts. Packham is the same archetype on a small sample (†) — build his innings here before leaning on him, and weigh the shortstop cost.
- Spot/relief: Mantzouris and Smith for short bursts where their swing-and-miss plays — but only if they're landing first-pitch strikes that day.
- Hold: keep Bailey in reserve when you can afford to — he's the one arm to have ready for a tight inning.
Rest & workload (USSSA 10u)
- 1–20 pitches → 0 days rest
- 21–35 → 1 day · 36–50 → 2 days
- 51–65 → 3 days · 66+ → 4 days
- Daily max 75 pitches.
Cap any single arm around 50 in a game unless you're knowingly spending the rest days. Bailey's the only one I'd push toward the cap.
Develop / watch
- Cooper Johnson #44 — bullpen focus on wild pitches and walks (1.23 BB/inning); the release point needs cleaning up before more live innings on the mound.
- Mantzouris #17 & Smith #54 — both miss bats; both need first-pitch strikes. Best return on practice time on the whole staff.
- Biggs #24 — 2.40 walks per inning and 8 wild pitches in 3.1 IP. Spot only until the strike rate (47%) comes up.
- Depth note: behind Bailey and James Cooper, there's no third arm yet with both command and innings. Building one (Waylon's the closest) is the off-the-radar priority for tournament weekends.
Caveat: 15-game season totals, no game-by-game pitch counts in this export.
These are aggregate tendencies — once box-score-level pitch data is tracked, we can add rest-day
math and tell whether each arm is trending sharper or wilder.